Knocking on doors it’s clear that support for us is bouncing back strongly, so we could yet spring a surprise in Enfield Southgate and be part of a Lib Dem North London cluster with neighbouring Hornsey & Wood Green.
Don’t knock it; stranger things have happened.
After all, this is a heavily pro-Remain constituency and we are Britain’s European party. We also have a great candidate in Pippa Morgan.
But key to achieving that coveted Lib Dem breakthrough is overcoming the reluctance of traditional Labour voters who are put off by Corbyn’s Eurosceptic negligence and inept leadership but who are also worried that we risk making it too easy for the Tories by splitting the opposition vote.
We are hearing these worries from some voters and they are not without foundation.
On paper, the Tory majority in Enfield Southgate looks onerous. On the last two occasions David Burrowes has won 49.4% of the vote.
There is nonetheless cause for optimism.
Just over 29,000 people in Enfield Southgate voted Remain in the EU referendum, compared with the 22,000 who voted for Burrowes in the last two elections. Moreover, this constituency has changed hands before; the local population is not as wedded to partisan tribal politics as other parts of the country. In any case, the Brexit vote has ripped away at party loyalties.
So if we can recover the 6,000 voters we had in 2010 and also attract the votes of, say, 5,000 Conservative Remainers and 5,000 Labour supporters angry at Corbyn’s EU referendum performance (and more), it’s game on.
Given the demographics of Enfield Southgate, this isn’t so fanciful an idea.
And given, the feedback we are getting as we knock on doors and shove our leaflets through letterboxes, it’s clear there is real support for us out there and that it is growing.
Paddy Power have us at 66-1 to win Enfield Southgate. But it was 100-1 just a couple of days ago. I’m putting a tenner down before the odds come down further.
The momentum is with us.